Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.320157 1.541008 1.786989 2.081240 2.423687 2.809707 3.278003
2024-12-15 0.964357 1.257630 1.621439 2.105833 2.734084 3.521841 4.585706
2024-12-22 0.738477 1.042089 1.448705 2.032922 2.851245 3.957809 5.570358
2024-12-29 0.653548 0.983179 1.452914 2.170791 3.240987 4.779311 7.163415
2025-01-05 0.539634 0.858122 1.337058 2.109214 3.324149 5.165323 8.174944
2025-01-12 0.450497 0.752834 1.229887 2.036692 3.368860 5.485280 9.113440
2025-01-19 0.382243 0.668399 1.140182 1.973688 3.411836 5.797105 10.067479
2025-01-26 0.344506 0.628167 1.115176 2.010973 3.620616 6.398388 11.574481
2025-02-02 0.327590 0.621103 1.144419 2.143852 4.008912 7.348593 13.807969
2025-02-09 0.302961 0.595997 1.137441 2.208860 4.280926 8.122954 15.819918
2025-02-16 0.276965 0.564302 1.113518 2.237592 4.486453 8.796613 17.724524
2025-02-23 0.251031 0.528857 1.077332 2.236567 4.631922 9.369893 19.501048
2025-03-02 0.226727 0.494084 1.039409 2.230060 4.771955 9.962426 21.423375
2025-03-09 0.207720 0.467888 1.015765 2.250608 4.972305 10.705501 23.768332
2025-03-16 0.182589 0.424661 0.950424 2.172425 4.950213 10.980182 25.142366
2025-03-23 0.178344 0.427630 0.985220 2.319693 5.443538 12.421491 29.290004
2025-03-30 0.158813 0.392338 0.929923 2.253912 5.443532 12.770522 30.989821
2025-04-06 0.140913 0.358346 0.873059 2.176437 5.405095 13.025603 32.500336
2025-04-13 0.125788 0.329008 0.823284 2.109130 5.381607 13.311337 34.121228
2025-04-20 0.118402 0.318208 0.817045 2.148961 5.628174 14.275273 37.555650
2025-04-27 0.116927 0.322587 0.849163 2.290915 6.152976 15.989265 43.133106
2025-05-04 0.111764 0.316374 0.853380 2.360360 6.497910 17.291438 47.806030
2025-05-11 0.105205 0.305392 0.843667 2.391054 6.743245 18.365901 52.010937